Currency Capers
- Accrue Staff
- May 22
- 3 min read
Recently, a relative gleefully sent through the pictures below to inform us that our upcoming US vacation would likely have a vegetarian slant, given the cost of buying steak. He further pointed out that for the price of two steaks, you could buy a decent-sized television.
At just R2 000/kg, you could be forgiven for thinking a Kobe-bred grass-fed, pasture-raised, clean as a whistle, smiling Wagyu was on the menu, not a lowly shop-bought ribeye. I didn’t point out that with the new tariffs, he had better act quickly, as his element 43” TV is sourced via China.
This interaction highlighted how currencies – in this case, the mighty dollar vs the lowly ZAR – can be a complicated part of investing, and nevertheless, he still bought the ribeye.
Yet currencies are incredibly important in determining your future wealth outcomes. Below, we outline the various ways in which currency factors into your investment world. Sometimes it is really critical, and at other times quite superficial. Without a guide of some sort, unanswered currency-related questions can often cause confusion and anxiety for investors.
Given that disclaimer, we will aim low in this case but reserve the right to extend the discussion in later articles once we have hopefully clarified the basics.
For context, its worth highlighting that if you had chosen GBP as your portfolio exposure (many do, given SA’s expat links) in 2007, today your investment on a pure currency basis would have lost almost 40% of its value should you measure it back to US$ (or travel and spend in the US for that matter). Similarly, we often feel like the Rand is weak against all currencies, yet it is actually not too bad vs GBP over the past decade (almost flat, meaning we have largely preserved our buying power in London for 10 years – Brexit hasn’t been helpful to them).
Often, we think about wealth in Rand and ‘not-Rand’ terms – implying that, provided we have our money out of Rands, it is safe1. In fact, it is far from safe, highlighted by this depreciation above between two so-called ‘hard’ currencies. Had you placed your investment in USD in 2001, you would be 50% underwater when measuring in GBP by 2008. Over any 10-year window for the past four decades, you would at times be up to 40% richer or poorer, just on the moves between these two ‘hard’ currencies. Practically, you feel it when you travel or spend in foreign currency, like the ribeye example above. Spending in a foreign currency crystallises the relative failure or success of your investment strategy.
On to the ways in which we come across currencies in investing. Below, we focus mainly on offshore portfolios, as this is where much of the complexity lies and is an increasingly large component of the domestic savings pool. Similar rules apply to SA portfolios, though. These are the six areas which need to be understood.
We have skipped over many details here, but hopefully the core message comes through loud and clear: be careful with your currency choice! It shouldn’t be a legacy decision or a default choice.
Currently, we are in an interesting time, where the ‘exceptionalism’ of the US market and its dollar are being questioned. Will it remain the haven reserve currency forever, or will it be undermined – as it has been from time to time, through mismanagement or external crises? Investing for the long term is challenging when you also need to choose a currency or mix of currencies to grow your wealth, particularly when a new world order is being established. It was only 80 years ago when the Pound Sterling was the world’s primary reserve currency, and over the past 100 years it has lost over 70% vs USD2. The Chinese Renminbi may just make a move for this role in future, given their economic expansion and gradual relaxation of currency controls. How then would this impact portfolios? Refer to the table above!
Currency is notoriously difficult to assess within portfolios and is not an investment asset itself, but rather a barometer of a country’s economic health. This makes it an unreliable ally in long-term wealth creation. For our part, we maintain a broad perspective on currencies and aim to develop our knowledge of what will drive their value over the long term so that we can best structure client portfolios. Ultimately, though, the choice is yours as to where to build your wealth and which mix of currencies is ideal. Starting with an understanding of what matters - and what doesn’t - can be a useful input in the financial planning and decision-making process.
[1] Sidebar: When holding cash, Rand accounts typically pay a lot more interest than USD, EUR or GBP. So, while your currency is losing value, you can make up a lot of ground via higher interest income.
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